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If you were going to receive a large payment in US dollars while your country's currency is euro, would you do the exchange immediately or wait for a few months in case the dollar goes up ?

Is there a chance that the dollar/euro rate will go up in reasonable time (like less than a year), or is it more likely to drop even more ?

i hope it goes down so I can get cheap stuff from the US

I've read economists believe it'll go up a little within a year.
but if I were you, I'd take it now

Phew ... if I knew I wouldn't tell you anyway. ..

Don't try to second-guess the economy. Economy is a chaos-system, there is no analytic structure to it. There are some patterns, but not even the patterns are nomotetically (governed by or as by natural laws) consistent.

Is there a chance that the dollar/euro rate will go up in reasonable time (like less than a year), or is it more likely to drop even more ?

If any of us knew for sure, we'd be rich.

I promise the dollar value will grow.

Maybe look at alternative, buy a gold bar for an example. Try to see which has better growth.

Gordon Brown must be kicking himself. When blairs government wanted some extra funding between 1999 and 2002 Brown sold 400 tonnes, 50% of the British gold reserves when the prices were at a 20 year low of $265 an ounce. The Chinese and a few other Asian countries bought it all up.

In recent years gold prices went up a huge amount and just a month or so were at $1000 an ounce.

The pound dropped 10% against the dollar in the last month, so I think the dollar will be gaining in strength in the future...

I think it is too hard to predict, if it would be that easy you just go and safely speculate in USD$. If I were you I would cash it in right away, don't mind the plus because you WILL bite yourself if it drops despite all positive predictions.

I think some economics professor said that predicting the economy is like feeling with your hands what is in a pitch-dark room.

I think I can agree with him about the direction he took in his comparison. But I think it is not that easy to predict the economy. It is much more difficult than feeling with your hands what is in a pitch-dark room.

I think the current rise in dollar value will be short-lived. The US economy seems to be going nowhere fast, and sooner or later it will collide rather violently with reality.

Minthos wrote:I think the current rise in dollar value will be short-lived. The US economy seems to be going nowhere fast, and sooner or later it will collide rather violently with reality.

Uhh ?

Given the 3.3 percent growth in the spring, I think it is doing much better than European powerhouses like Germany or England.

Minthos wrote:I think the current rise in dollar value will be short-lived. The US economy seems to be going nowhere fast, and sooner or later it will collide rather violently with reality.

I can't find the article but I believe the US economy has been doing better over the past 5-8 years then Europe in general. Especially with respect to unemployment numbers.

EDIT: Found it, its opinion piece backed with stats in the Wall Street Journal.

I would contend that while it's been doing "better," than Europe, the US economy has done so on borrowed money. Things looked peachy in September of 2000, almost eight years ago to the week, when national debt actually started going down and the Debt Clock was shut off. The final tally: about $5.6 trillion. That's a lot, but as any economist will tell you, the very best investment you can make is to pay off your dues.

Fast forward to today and the Debt Clock has been re-activated. The current estimate by the way is $9.7 trillion and continues to rise, so there's a very good chance that the US national debt will have actually doubled by the time the oval office is cycled.

So the article you cite is partially correct: the economy has done extremely well in the last 5-8 years, but just like anything you borrow, the day will come that you have to pay for it.

Page wrote:I would contend that while it's been doing "better," than Europe, the US economy has done so on borrowed money. Things looked peachy in September of 2000, almost eight years ago to the week, when national debt actually started going down and the Debt Clock was shut off. The final tally: about $5.6 trillion. That's a lot, but as any economist will tell you, the very best investment you can make is to pay off your dues.

Fast forward to today and the Debt Clock has been re-activated. The current estimate by the way is $9.7 trillion and continues to rise, so there's a very good chance that the US national debt will have actually doubled by the time the oval office is cycled.

So the article you cite is partially correct: the economy has done extremely well in the last 5-8 years, but just like anything you borrow, the day will come that you have to pay for it.

Yeah it is bad but it is comparable to others... everyone seems to be living on borrowed money.

Here are some numbers :

Country...........Gov't Spending/GDP.........Budget Balance...............Public Debt/GDP
Canada.....................19.02%...........................0.70% surplus........................77.00%
France......................24.28%..........................4.10% deficit...........................69.10%
Germany..................19.70%...........................4.00% deficit..........................63.90%
Italy..........................19.20%...........................2.30% deficit........................106.67%
Japan........................17.50%...........................7.42% deficit.........................154.62%
UK.............................20.50%..........................3.10% deficit...........................51.40%
USA...........................18.72%...........................3.46% deficit..........................62.43%
Mean.........................19.85%...........................3.38% deficit..........................83.59%
Median.....................19.20%...........................3.46% deficit..........................69.10%

And do not forget that 43000000000000 USD kept by China. They keep pressure on USA. If they do something nasty, like USA says Taiwan is not part of China, China releases a part of that thus making the dollar fly low low low ...

KevinMulder wrote:And do not forget that 43000000000000 USD kept by China. They keep pressure on USA. If they do something nasty, like USA says Taiwan is not part of China, China releases a part of that thus making the dollar fly low low low ...

Why would China want to commit the economic equivalent of seppuku ?

Yea, that’s the legacy of Bush and the republican economic policies.
They had squander 560 billion dollars federal budget surplus and turned into a 2 trillion dollar deficit in only 8 years.

I do not know where Warmi is take those numbers from, they seem to come from where the sun do not really shine.
This chart can give an idea of what republican do to the economic when they are in control. http://www.kowaldesign.com/budget/
Notice how in the 90’t the curve was flat.
No mather how Warmi wants to slice it out, It is lipstick on a Pig.
Hey Warmi can you tell me what economic genie will McCain use this time?
McCain thinks Bush is an economic genius because his top economic adviser Phil Gramm's was the chief architect of the deregulation of the Mortgage market during the Bush regim.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ikJ5D1EaBgg

This is what Mccain said about the fundamentals of the economic, few month ago.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8kqbnEx5SDw

From strong fundaments he when to a mild psychological setback and he wanted of give a tax release of 5 cents on a $4 dollars gallon of gas to the amercian drivers. No withtanding that, that plan wouldl eliminate 80,000 jobs.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ivroxPyG-IE
That's the kind of policies you get when C students and people who graduated 5th from the bottom in a class of 400, are elected to power.

This is what his chief economic adviser Phil Gramm's said about the economic around the same time.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2NVjq2py ... re=related.
The republicans thinks that the US economy is the most dominat around the world.

Mean while economist like Paul Krugman where speaking of the harm of the unrestrained free market and the deregulation of the mortgage subprime, and they where ridicule by the republican political operatives
passing for Journalist on Fox News and the New Your post.
Guess what? after McCain made his assessment of how strong the economic is, we had gone through the collapse of two of the biggest mortgage lenders in the nation.

Game_Ender wrote: I can't find the article but I believe the US economy has been doing better over the past 5-8 years then Europe in general. Especially with respect to unemployment numbers.

EDIT: Found it, its opinion piece backed with stats in the Wall Street Journal.

Or in other words, spin. The article is loaded with Republican propaganda.

Like others have mentioned, the US public debt is growing fast, meanwhile money supply is getting tighter and oil has gotten very expensive. Several major banks are in deep shit, Ford and GM are in deep shit, people are defaulting on their loans, and the foreign trade balance has a huge deficit.

Europe isn't doing too well either true enough, growth has slowed down a lot and even signs of a slight recession are starting to appear. All well and good, but Russia, China, India and other big countries have a dramatic growth.

With people losing confidence in the USD there's also the danger that the middle east could switch over to pricing oil in EUR instead.

Anyway, I'm not an economist, I'm sure there are lots of reasons why my prediction could be wrong.

Minthos wrote:

Game_Ender wrote: I can't find the article but I believe the US economy has been doing better over the past 5-8 years then Europe in general. Especially with respect to unemployment numbers.

EDIT: Found it, its opinion piece backed with stats in the Wall Street Journal.

Or in other words, spin. The article is loaded with Republican propaganda.

Like others have mentioned, the US public debt is growing fast, meanwhile money supply is getting tighter and oil has gotten very expensive. Several major banks are in deep shit, Ford and GM are in deep shit, people are defaulting on their loans, and the foreign trade balance has a huge deficit.

Europe isn't doing too well either true enough, growth has slowed down a lot and even signs of a slight recession are starting to appear. All well and good, but Russia, China, India and other big countries have a dramatic growth.

With people losing confidence in the USD there's also the danger that the middle east could switch over to pricing oil in EUR instead.

Anyway, I'm not an economist, I'm sure there are lots of reasons why my prediction could be wrong.

Well that's only if you consider Wall Street Journal to be some sort of republican mouthpiece.

VictorMoran wrote:Yea, that’s the legacy of Bush and the republican economic policies.
They had squander 560 billion dollars federal budget surplus and turned into a 2 trillion dollar deficit in only 8 years.

I do not know where Warmi is take those numbers from, they seem to come from where the sun do not really shine.
This chart can give an idea of what republican do to the economic when they are in control. http://www.kowaldesign.com/budget/
Notice how in the 90’t the curve was flat.
.

Yeah it was very nice ... though you forgot to mention that Bill Clinton balanced the budget only due to extreme Republican pressure. Remember Newt Gengrich and his "Contract with America"?

Hell, do you remember the famous government shutdown ?
Do you remember why it happened ?

It had something to do with republicans wanting to cut even more waste and Clinton basically refusing to do so.

But I will give you one point ... today's Republicans are not the same people - they are basically just as trigger happy ( in terms of spending other people money) as are Democrats...

warmi wrote: Well that's only if you consider Wall Street Journal to be some sort of republican mouthpiece.

I don't, but judging from this article, they are.

warmi wrote: Yeah it was very nice ... though you forgot to mention that Bill Clinton balanced the budget only due to extreme Republican pressure. Remember Newt Gengrich and his "Contract with America"?

Hell, do you remember the famous government shutdown ?
Do you remember why it happened ?

It had something to do with republicans wanting to cut even more waste and Clinton basically refusing to do so.

But I will give you one point ... today's Republicans are not the same people - they are basically just as trigger happy ( in terms of spending other people money) as are Democrats...

Let's not turn this into a Republican vs Democrat blamefest, eh? The issue is whether the US economy is set for catastrophic failure, not whose blame it is.

Minthos wrote:

warmi wrote: Well that's only if you consider Wall Street Journal to be some sort of republican mouthpiece.

I don't, but judging from this article, they are.

warmi wrote: Yeah it was very nice ... though you forgot to mention that Bill Clinton balanced the budget only due to extreme Republican pressure. Remember Newt Gengrich and his "Contract with America"?

Hell, do you remember the famous government shutdown ?
Do you remember why it happened ?

It had something to do with republicans wanting to cut even more waste and Clinton basically refusing to do so.

But I will give you one point ... today's Republicans are not the same people - they are basically just as trigger happy ( in terms of spending other people money) as are Democrats...

Let's not turn this into a Republican vs Democrat blamefest, eh? The issue is whether the US economy is set for catastrophic failure, not whose blame it is.

Well, I am no economy major so I will rely on professionals (like WSJ)....
Personally, things are goign very well and that's all I can tell you.